Published Nov 19, 2022
Matchup Breakdown: Huskies should keep momentum rolling vs. Colorado
Tajwar Khandaker
Staff writer

While No. 17 Washington is rolling with four straight wins and a surging national ranking, the Colorado Buffaloes have had a year to forget, dwelling in the FBS cellar as one of the worst teams in college football.

Despite the firing of head coach Karl Dorrell early in the year, the Buffs have continued to struggle, managing to eke out just one win against Cal. Colorado has struggled on both sides of the ball, with an offense that hasn’t been able to move the chains and a defense that can’t quite stop anybody.

Coming off consecutive blowouts at the hands of Oregon and USC, the Buffs (1-9, 1-6 Pac-12) are unlikely to pose much of a real threat to Washington (8-2, 5-2) when the teams meet at Husky Stadium at 6 p.m. PT Saturday (Pac-12 Network).

Let's take a closer look at the matchup with the Buffs ...

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Colorado Buffaloes

Coach: Mike Sanford (Interim, 1-4; 10-20 career)

Scoring Offense: 15.7 PPG (127th)

Scoring Defense: 41.7 PPG (131st)

Total Offense: 298.7 YPG (124th)

Total Defense: 488.0 YPG (129th)

What the Buffs do well: There aren’t many positives to speak of on this Colorado team, but the Buffs’ run game is more capable than it appears on paper. Though the team averages just 3.5 yards per carry, that number is badly skewed by sack yardage lost by quarterbacks. Colorado’s running backs however have averaged a decent 4.5 yards per carry, with four of the team’s five primary backs averaging over 4 yards a tote. Lead running back Deion Smith has been particularly effective at 5.1 yards per carry when healthy, while Alex Fontenot has played well in his return from injury, posting over 100 yards and a touchdown against USC last week. The offensive line has been solid enough to keep the run game semi-valuable, and they haven’t been awful in pass protection either. Though they certainly haven’t been impressive up front the unit has been relatively stable, allowing 20 sacks on the year. That’s just above the FBS average -- as good as things get for this team.

What the Buffs don’t do well: Most things, unfortunately enough for Colorado. The biggest of their problems lies with the passing offense, which has been among the worst in the country averaging just 182.9 yards per game. The Buffs’ quarterback situation has been a nightmare as the team has cycled through 3 passers without finding one capable of leading the offense to consistent production. J.T. Shrout has been holding onto the job for a while now, but he’s been less than inspiring through 7 games of play. Shrout is completing less than half of his passes at 45.4%, averaging just under 6 yards per completion with 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to show for his efforts. Colorado’s lack of pass-catching threats further stymies the potential of the passing game, especially in the absence of injured No. 1 target Jordyn Tyson.

The Buffaloes are equally vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, giving up nearly 500 yards per game. The front seven has been relatively impotent this season against both the run and the pass. They’ve been allowing a whopping 227.8 yards per game on the ground, with most capable rushing offenses steamrolling them in the run game. Colorado’s pass rush might just be the worst in the whole country; it has managed only 9 sacks all year, good for dead last in the entire FBS. They lack any real impact players on the defensive line and have been prone to getting manhandled by opposing offensive lines. Those instabilities on the defensive front make it near impossible for the Buffs to hold up against opposing offenses.

5 Players to Know:

1. RB Alex Fontenot (No. 8): Despite having missed a majority of the season due to injury, Fontenot has played at a high level since his return two weeks ago. The senior handled just 7 carries in his first game back against Oregon, taking them for 41 yards before posting a big-time performance the next week against USC with 108 yards and 1 touchdown on 20 carries. Fontenot is an experienced back with a natural feel for creases at the line of scrimmage and the necessary mixture of burst and quickness to make guys miss when he gets going. He’s got good speed at the second level, making him a threat to rip off big gains once he’s cleared the first line of defenders. As Deion Smith continues to recover from his injury, don’t be surprised to see Fontenot handling lead back duties.

2. RB Deion Smith (No. 20): Smith has stood out as the lead man in the Buffaloes’ crowded backfield, leading the team in carries, yards and yards per carry. He’s racked up 381 rushing yards on 75 handoffs, scoring 2 touchdowns as well. The 6-foot 190-pound junior is a quick back who shows good vision, allowing him to maximize on whatever opportunities his line gives him. An injury limited his touches over the past two weeks but he might be set to play a bigger role this weekend.

3. QB J.T. Shrout (No. 5): The veteran quarterback has been rather uninspiring, now in his second year but first active season at Colorado after transferring from Tennessee. For his career, Shrout has averaged a disappointing completion percentage of just 47%, and he’s been even worse this year at 45.4%. Despite possessing solid physical traits, Shrout’s poor processing and accuracy leads him to place the ball in dangerous spots. On the year, Shrout has thrown for 6 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He'll likely be among the least imposing quarterbacks the Huskies will have faced all season.

4. S Trevor Woods (No. 43): Woods has been one of the few consistent difference-makers on the Colorado defense, offering aggression and instincts from his spot in the defensive backfield. The junior has wrangled 63 solo tackles on the year -- second most of any player in the entire country and first in the Power 5. He’s proven himself as a strong finisher at the football with a keen sense for pursuit angles. So far, Woods has notched 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, 2 passes defensed and 2 forced fumbles. He’s a legitimate playmaker on the back end of the Buffs’ defense and a player to keep out for.

5. LB Josh Chandler-Semedo (No. 8): The redshirt senior linebacker has impressed in his first season with Colorado, as a transfer from West Virginia, leading the team in tackles for loss with 11 on the year so far. He’s 3rd in the conference in TFL’s with that total, as well as sitting at 2nd in total tackles behind his teammate Trevor Woods. Chandler-Semedo is an explosive athlete with surprising quickness for the position, allowing him to beat offensive linemen with his twitch and giving him the potential to be a positive coverage player. He’s got a unique compact build for a linebacker at 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds, leaving him prone to get swept up at times in the run game but giving him unique opportunities to make plays when shooting gaps.

Key Stat: -11 turnover ratio

The Colorado offense has struggled to maintain possession, turning the ball over 20 times on the year. That’s good for 117th worst in the country, little help to an offense that already struggles mightily to move the chains. The team’s 9 interceptions aren’t pretty, but Colorado’s real problems in the turnover department stem from its fumbling issues as a team. The Buffs have fumbled the ball an astounding 20 times on the year, losing 11 of those. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense has struggled to force turnovers all season with just 10 takeaways as it's continued to search for footing on that side of the ball. This opportunity provides the Huskies a chance to make some headway in that department, potentially giving the entire defense something of a “get right” game.

Key Matchup: Washington front seven vs Colorado run game

As described earlier, the Colorado run game is at least passably capable, more than what can be said for the rest of this team. Lead backs Fontenot and Smith are both very capable runners, and the offensive line does a solid enough job of blocking for them. After giving up over 300 yards on the ground to Oregon, the Washington defensive line will need to show that it can stiffen up front against much weaker competition. The Huskies defensive front is much too talented for the lackluster performances they’ve often had against opposing rushing offenses this year -- a big performance is in order as they seek to make their case for a last-second push up the CFP rankings.