The Case For Washington and Auburn; Kickoff Classic Preview and Prediction
SEATTLE – Chris Petersen is attempting the near impossible entering 2018. Get enough national attention and earn another College Football Playoff berth, all while not garnering more eyes than he’s comfortable with.
The first and last box are put to the test right out of the gate.
Entering his fifth season as head coach at Washington, Petersen has the Huskies program ranked No. 6 in both the Associated Press and Coaches Poll. He also begins the season unlike any other in the 100-plus year history of the UW football program.
The Huskies are set to face the No. 9 ranked Auburn Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta, Georgia on Saturday. It’s the first trip south for UW since traveling to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl in 2016, a 24-7 defeat to top-ranked Alabama in the Georgia Dome.
But the stakes are different now. They’re higher.
“These guys are really phenomenal,” UW offensive coordinator / quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan said earlier this week when asked about facing the Tigers vaunted front seven.
“So it’s a great challenge. This is the reason why these players came to the University of Washington. To play in games like this. We’re excited to see what they do.”
The two programs have never played each other prior to Saturday’s matchup. For UW, whether Petersen will acknowledge it or not, it’s an opportunity for the program to make a national statement.
Not just for the university or to improve the prospects for several assistant coaches, but for the Pac-12 Conference and to validate the “Conference of Champions” slogan coined by commissioner Larry Scott.
“There’s going to be those first game things where it’s like ‘huh? How did that happen?’ Petersen said during his press conference on Sunday.
“When you’re playing a team as good as Auburn that can be painful. That can hurt you bad. I think it’s very challenging. It makes you have your game right from the start. If you’re not you’re going to pay the price.”
The Start
Of the 14 seniors returning for Washington (seven offensive, seven defensive) in 2018, only one of player is not listed as a starter vs Auburn.
Redshirt Sr. Matt James, a 6-5, 300-pound offensive lineman, is the No. 2 right guard behind redshirt freshman Jaxson Kirkland on the Huskies depth chart. The son of former UW OL Dean Kirkland is the only underclassmen starting up front for UW.
The decision to start a second-year player along the OL came with a slight caveat, when OL coach Scott Huff addressed the plan in the trenches against the Tigers on August 25.
“Some years you might travel 10 guys but you’re really only going to play seven of them, unless you’re winning,” Huff said. “Right now I feel like we’re pretty close to being two-deep, and we’ll just see how it plays out. But we’re going to continue developing everybody.”
Since then Huff named his starting OL for week one (left to right); (Trey) Adams, Luke Wattenberg, Nick Harris, (Jaxson) Kirkland and Kaleb McGary. The five players most responsible for providing two more seniors, QB Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin at running back, with time and lines to burst through respectively.
Even though UW listed Adams as the starting LT for the season opener, he’s not expected to factor in the game which likely points to either redshirt junior, Henry Roberts or Jared Hilbers, who filled in for Adams during fall camp at the position.
Redshirt freshman Henry Bainivalu, a former four-star offensive tackle from Skyline High School (Sammamish, Washington), could also see the field against Auburn.
The Tigers held opponents to 18.8 points per game last season and allowed 20 or more points just six times (3-3 record) in all of last year. However, against teams ranked in the Top 25, Auburn went winless in games in which the defense allowed 20-plus points.
Falling in week two at No. 3 Clemson 14-6, and then again in consecutive games to end the 2017 season against No. 6 Georgia (28-7) and No. 12 Central Florida (34-27), each game provided a partial blueprint to beat Tigers.
The Reason Why Auburn Will Win
UW is the higher ranked team, with the more accomplished head coach, and yet still the Huskies aren’t the gambling favorite week one. Most sports books have Auburn as a two-point favorite, down a point from the opening odds.
Both teams can state their case for having the best defense in college football. However, it’s hard to recall a better all around DL unit that the Huskies have faced under Petersen, outside of Alabama in 2016.
The Tigers return two 14 game starters from last season, senior defensive tackle Dontavius Russell and junior Derrick Brown, who combined for 102 total tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Sophomore Nick Coe, a 6-5, 282-pound DL replaces Jeff Holland at BUCK which allows junior defensive end Marlon Davidson the opportunity to remain at his position. Davidson started all but one game at DE last season, with Coe getting one start against Mercer in week three.
Auburn rounds out its talented front seven with three seniors at linebacker; Darrell Williams at SAM, Deshaun Davis at MIKE and Montavious Atkinson playing the WILL position. All three players started at least four games last season.
Davis started 10 games, Williams started six and Atkinson just four times in 2017. The trade off, and where Auburn is vulnerable against UW’s offense, is in the secondary. Junior Jamel Dean is the veteran of the position group starting 11 games last season.
The next two most experienced DB’s for defensive coordinator Kevin Steele are a pair of juniors, nickel Javaris Davis and strong safety Daniel Thomas, each starting one game in 2017.
For the Tigers to leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a victory they will have to slow down the Huskies three-headed stable of RB’s, and not allow Browning time in the pocket to move the ball down the field.
The Reason Why Washington Will Win
Not always does the most complete team, at full health or not, prove victorious. UW by no means are the Huskies at 100 percent to open the 2018 season.
But where Petersen has made his mark as a coach is not by passing the eye test. First at Boise State and since coming to Washington, Petersen has proven to be the better coach more times than not in his five seasons in Seattle.
UW has enough talent on offense to allow the defense time to rest on the sideline, but the margin for error is next to none. They don’t need much room however.
The offensive line concerns can be offset by adding a tight end or two, either senior Drew Sample or sophomore Jacob Kizer, to serve as insurance protection for Browning, or as run blockers for Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Co.
If Auburn is able to pin UW down early, and the defense has to stay on the field longer throughout the game, that isn’t a recipe for success. What should be expected from both teams is a mixture of the two for the full 60 minutes.
The Prediction:
No. 6 Washington 21, No. 9 Auburn 13.