Published Sep 24, 2022
Scouting the Opponent: Stanford's Tanner McKee best QB Washington has faced
Tajwar Khandaker
Staff writer

Following a decade of prominence near the top of the Pac-12, the Stanford Cardinal have fallen upon difficult times, last achieving bowl eligibility back in 2018.

Once known for its dominance in the trenches, the quality of Stanford’s line play has diminished in recent years, making it difficult for the team to stay competitive. Last season was particularly sour for the Cardinal as it finished 3-9, losing the final seven contests of the year consecutively after a remarkable upset of No. 3 Oregon.

Nonetheless, Stanford still has plenty of talent on the roster, and no team with David Shaw as head coach should ever be counted out. Stanford opened its 2022 season on the right foot with a strong 41-10 victory over FCS-level Colgate and showed room for improvement. Though the USC Trojans beat them handily in Week 2, the Cardinal offense showed up, posting 441 total yards and scoring 28 points despite having 4 turnovers.

This is a team with serious weaknesses, but they’ve got enough going for them to prevent Saturday’s matchup from being a cakewalk for Washington, which is coming off its 38-28 win over then-No. 11 Michigan State.

That said, as the No. 18 Huskies (3-0) host the Cardinal (1-1) Saturday night (7:30 p.m. PT on FS1) in their conference opener, they are 14-point favorites for a reason.

Let's take a closer look at the matchup with Stanford.

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Stanford Cardinal

2021 record: 3-9

2022 record: 1-1

Coach: David Shaw (12th season, 94-46)

Stats/national rankings

Scoring offense: 34.5 PPG (59th)

Total offense: 469 YPG (41st)

Scoring defense: 25.5 PPG (69th)

Total defense: 361.5 YPG (69th)

What Stanford does well ...

Though the Stanford defense isn’t particularly stout, there’s real talent in the Cardinal secondary. Last season, the team fared quite well against the pass, allowing an average of only 215.6 passing yards per game on a low opposing completion percentage of 62.2%. That’s particularly impressive when you consider Stanford’s woeful inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks last year. Returning cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly is a legitimate NFL prospect, and safety Kendall Williamson proved to be one of the team’s best tacklers last season, tying for second on the team to go with his 3.5 TFLs, 6 pass deflections, and 1 forced fumble. The group also adds Oklahoma transfer safety Patrick Fields, who’s been an All Big-12 honorable mention twice and had the best season of his career in 2021. They got off to a good start in Week 1 against Colgate, holding the opposing offense to just 59 yards and an interception on 20 attempts. Of course, the contest against USC was a different story altogether as the team was torched by Caleb Williams and the Trojans passing attack, giving up 341 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. Though there were certainly lapses in the secondary, it’s hard to pin the blame squarely on that unit, particularly given the abundance of time in the pocket the front seven routinely allowed Williams. Kelly in particular struggled to contain WR Jordan Addison, but then again, so has most every corner lined up across from him for the past year. The group should prove an interesting test for a Washington passing offense that’s statistically rivaled USC’s to this point as the best in the conference.

Though the sample size is just two games to this point, the Stanford offense seems to have taken several steps forward from the past season, meanwhile. Last year the Cardinal was uncharacteristically unable to move the ball on the ground, rushing for just 87.1 yards per game, good for fifth worst in the country. So far, there seems to be a significant improvement in that regard as the team has rushed for 390 yards and 6 touchdowns already through two games. The offense has incorporated a number of schematic wrinkles to boost the rushing attack, including increased misdirection and slow mesh points on RPO plays. Stanford’s playmakers on the ground have also been a key element of their improvement on the ground, namely E.J. Smith, who’s been a dynamic threat with the ball in his hands. Smith has been ruled out for Saturday night, so Stanford will need Casey Filkins (22 carries for 97 yards and 2 TDs) to step up.

Also, the Huskies figure to be the best run defense the Cardinal has seen so far, having just totally stifled a strong Michigan State rushing game the past weekend. Neither Colgate nor USC was adept at stopping the run, making this week’s matchup a curious test for both sides. In addition, Stanford has a capable passing attack with an NFL prospect in Tanner McKee at the helm. McKee will be the first legitimate threat at quarterback the Huskies have faced this year and will certainly test a secondary that hasn't been pushed all that much so far.

What Stanford doesn't do well ...

Put simply, Stanford has been horrific against the run for the past year. In 2021, it allowed a mind-boggling 237.6 rushing yards per game, good for fourth worst in the entire FBS. The defensive line and linebacking corps have been woeful when tasked with stopping the run, and the group didn’t get off to the best of starts this year either, giving up 159 yards to Colgate. The following week against the Trojans was no better, as they gave up another 162 yards and a score on just 26 carries to USC’s running backs. The Cardinal will likely remain highly vulnerable on the ground going forward.

On offense, Stanford has a serious turnover problem to start the year. Through just two games, the team has 8 turnovers, giving the ball away 4 times in each of its contests. Though the 3 interceptions can be somewhat chalked up to fluke, given that 2 of them came off deflections, the 5 fumbles lost can’t be. Lapses of ball security cost Stanford dearly. Stanford had 2 turnovers right in the shadow of the goal line in the USC game, where a couple scores would have dramatically shifted the competitiveness of the entire contest. Unless the Cardinal can get its ball security issues under wraps, that will continue to be a major thorn in the side of this offense.

Players to know:

QB Tanner McKee, QB (No. 18): McKee is a serious candidate to hear his name called in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft. He’s your built like your prototypical NFL quarterback prospect, standing at 6-foot-6 and weighing 230 pounds. McKee boasts a very strong arm and the ability to throw with touch, displaying impressive accuracy across the field. He’s also more mobile than his size would indicate, allowing him to make plays on the run and even to take off from time to time. Though he’s a sound decision-maker, McKee will gamble on a difficult throw from time to time by necessity, taking the best shot available to him based on the condition of his offense. Though he didn’t have the best of games against USC, he showed great poise in the pocket and generally delivered the football with good accuracy and timing. With a set of massive wide receivers to challenge the Huskies' untested cornerback group, expect him to take an aggressive approach in the passing game.

CB Kyu Blu Kelly (No. 17): Kelly is the Cardinal’s best cover man, and he headlines the secondary unit that should be the team’s best bright spot. Kelly is a feisty competitor, with an eagerness to hit and aggression at the catch point. He has real speed to burn and holds up well in press coverage. His aggression can leave him vulnerable to the big play from time to time however and can be taken advantage of by a daring quarterback. Kelly had a rough go of things against reigning Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, losing some tough one-on-one battles, but that’s a matchup that most cornerbacks in college football will end up on the wrong side of. All things considered, Kelly was never too far off from making a play in that game, keeping in phase with Addison even on the plays he was beaten. He’ll make things tough for UW’s receivers on the outside.

LT Walter Rouse (No. 75): On a Stanford offensive line that’s struggled to find both its identity and its footing in recent years, Rouse is the key to any potential turnaround. The senior has been a mainstay of the Cardinal line for the duration of his career, with great showings in his first two years before a more disappointing 2021 season. Now preparing to lead an offensive line unit full of veterans, it will fall to the 6-foot-6, 320-pound Rouse to maintain the standard of play expected of him. Any shot for this line to handle its business begins with Rouse playing well -- if he can’t, things are going to look bleak for Stanford up front.

EDGE David Bailey (No. 23): Stanford had not started a true freshman in a season opener since 2007, until Bailey made his debut against Colgate. The edge rusher from Irvine, Calif., is explosive off the ball, with serious bend and quickness to get to the quarterback. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, Bailey cuts an imposing figure already and has made an instant impact for a defensive front that otherwise struggles both against the run and the pass. He appeared to be the best player on the front seven against USC, notching 6 tackles and a sack in his second-ever college game. Bailey will almost certainly continue to improve, making him the key name for Washington’s offensive line to keep an eye on.

Key Stat: 237 Rush YPG allowed in 2021

The Stanford defense has been awful at stopping the run recently, giving up more yards on the ground last season than its own offense managed throwing the ball. This year is off to an inauspicious start in that regard as well, with Colgate managing to put up 159 rushing yards against the Cardinal in the opener and USC posting an easy 164 rushing yards the following week. The Huskies have run the ball well this year with 159.7 yards a game on an average of 4.4 yards a carry; a huge improvement from the prior season. If they can continue to succeed on the ground this week as they should, this game could be over quickly.

Key Matchup Tanner McKee vs the UW secondary

Given the stoutness of Washington’s rushing defense and the absence of E.J. Smith, expect the Stanford gameplan to ask a lot more of quarterback Tanner McKee and his arm. Though the Huskies have been consistently strong in the defensive backfield over the years, the loss of their top two cornerbacks in Kyler Gordon and Trent McDuffie to the NFL leaves something of a question mark for the team at the boundaries. Jordan Perryman and Michael Powell have been handling a majority of snaps for the Huskies at corner, but they have yet to be tested with a truly threatening passing attack. Even still, the heavily run-oriented Michigan State Spartans managed to throw for 323 yards on the night, a majority of those going to the team’s wide receivers. This week, Washington will need to prepare for an NFL prospect at quarterback in McKee, who shows great ball placement and strong decision-making.

McKee has a cast of basketball players out wide, with his top four targets boasting an average height of 6-foot-3 1/2. He likes to test defensive backs by tossing up balls for his big receivers to high point down the sideline, a strategy that might just work against a cornerback group that’s looking to find its footing. Though Washington’s offense should have no problems putting up points, Stanford may have a chance to pile on more of its own should the Huskies secondary begin to crack under pressure.